The IPCC and it's Fuzzy Math

"It is likely (IPCC defines the word "likely" as 66% probability) that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent"

"It is very likely (IPCC defines the "very likely" as 90% probability) that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy rains will continue to become more frequent.

You can find it here
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_SPM-v2.pdf

Now you have to remember that in developing their climate modals they use the weather data from the last 150 years to test the modals, if the model is a close match to the climate over the last 150 years, then they use the modal to predict the future. So what they are saying is that their models match the past with a 66% probability, but for some reason even though their confidence in the models is only 66% they are 90% confidante of the answer (future climate).

So in summary, what would you say if I showed you a mathematical formula and said to you that I'm 66% percent confident that the formula is accurate, and then proceeded to tell you that although I'm only 66% confident of the formulas accuracy, I'm 90% confident of the result are right. Would that make any sense?

Greenland Cooler today then in 1940

A new scientific study has just been complete by the Danish Meteorological Institute, which compiled temperatures records for Greenland for the last 250 years. The results of the study show that temperatures in Greenland today are in reality lower then they were in the 1940's, thus the temperatures have been on average stable there for the last 70 years.

You can find the report here http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/greenland/vintheretal2006.pdf

Thier conclusions are on page 9.

THERE IS NO CONSENSUS

You'll see this word in almost every newspaper article on global warming..."consensus". But is there really one in the scientific community? In 2003 Professor Dennis Bray of the GKSS Institute of Coastal Research in Geesthacht, Germany did a poll of the some of the worlds leading climatologists. And published the results to his poll in this paper.... http://www.sepp.org/Archive/NewSEPP/Bray.htm

In summary almost as many climatologists disagree at some level that our current global warming cycle is caused by man as agree with it.

50/50 is not a consensus.

208 YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

HERE'S A TID-BIT THAT THE IPCC FORGOT TO MENTION. IN THE EARLY PART OF THE 8TH CENTURY THE MAYA OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WERE AT THERE PEAK, A CIVILIZATION ESTIMATED AT 15 MILLION, THEN SOMETHING HAPPENED, THE CIVILIZATION COLLAPSED ALMOST OVERNIGHT. A PROLONGED DROUGHT DECIMATED THE AGRICULTURAL SOCIETY AND CAUSED IT'S TOTAL COLLAPSE. THIS CHANGE IN RAIN PATTERNS HAS BEEN FOUND IN THE SEDIMENTATION RECORD ALL OVER THE WORLD. IT'S A WELL DOCUMENTED 208 YEAR SOLAR CYCLE. NOW DO A LITTLE MATH 925AD PLUS 5 CYCLES AT 208 YEARS AND WHAT DO YOU GET; ABOUT THE START OF OUR CURRENT GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES. FUNNY HOW THE IPCC WANTS TO DISCOUNT SOLAR FORCING ON CLIMATE CHANGE.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/292/5520/1367

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/03/0313_030313_mayadrought_2.html

60 GLOBAL WARMING ADVOCATES GO SKEPTIC

NO NEED TO SAY MUCH MORE THEN WHAT THESE 60 TOP CANADIAN SCIENTISTS ARE SAYING TO THEIR GOVERNMENT.

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Facts&ContentRecord_id=1E639422-7094-4972-83AF-EE40EE302D41

SO THE PRESS ISN'T BIASED?

LOOK UP THE WORD JOURNALIST ON WIKIPEDIA.COM AND HERE'S WHAT YOU FIND...

"A journalist is a person who practices journalism, the gathering and dissemination of information about current events, trends, issues and people."

OKAY SO FAR, BUT THEN IT CONTINUES TO DEFINE....

"Reporters find the sources for their work, their reports can be either spoken or written, and they are generally expected to report in the most objective and unbiased way to serve the public good."

OKAY..SO THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE OBJECTIVE AND UNBIASED. SO IF THAT'S THE CASE WHY WOULD YOU FIND A GROUP OF "ENVIRONMENTAL JOURNALISTS" THAT BELONG TO A GROUP LIKE THE 'SOCIETY OF ENVIRONMENTAL JOURNALISTS' THAT HAVE ON THEIR WEB PAGE (http://www.sej.org/resource/index18.htm) A LIST OF CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTICS AND DENIERS. AND WHO HAS 'RATED' AND SMOKED OUT THESE EVIL DOERS, WELL NO ONE ELSE BUT THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS FOR ONE.
WHAT'S ALSO INTERESTING IS THAT THERE ARE OVER 1300 MEMBERS, BUT GUESS WHAT YOU CAN'T FIND A LIST OF THEIR NAMES UNLESS YOUR A MEMBER. SOUNDS LIKE A SECRETE SOCIETY TO ME.

IT'S COOLING,NO HEATING,NO COOLING, NO HEATING..PRESS CAN'T GET IT RIGHT

HERE'S TWO CBS NEWS STORIES 4 MONTHS APART FROM 2002. I'LL LET THE HEADLINES SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

Antarctic Warming Alarms Scientists
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/05/14/tech/main508926.shtml

Antarctica Grows Colder, But Why?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/01/14/tech/main324261.shtml

THE REAL AGENDA SHOWS IT'S FACE

THE REAL AGENDA TO THE "GLOBAL WARMING" GANG HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SAVING MANKIND, IT'S ABOUT REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1935799.htm

IPCC NOT NEUTRAL OR UNBIASED

IT'S IN THE NEWS EVERY DAY...THE IPCC IS THE LAST WORD ON CLIMATE CHANGE ACCORDING TO AL GORE AND THE NATIONAL MEDIA. I'M NOT GOING TO BAD MOUTH THE IPCC, I'LL LET THEM DO IT FOR THEMSELVES. IF YOU GO TO THE IPCC WEB SITE YOU'LL FIND THEIR MISSION STATEMENT...IT READS

"The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change"

HERE'S THE WEBSITE SO YOU CAN READ FOR YOURSELF. http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm

NOW READ THE LAST 4 WORDS..."HUMAN INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE" YOU SEE THEIR WHOLE MISSION STATEMENT IS PREDICATED ON GLOBAL WARMING BEING INDUCED BY MAN. A TRUELY UNBIASED MISSION STATEMENT WOULD LEAVE OUT THE WORDS "HUMAN-INDUCED". IF MAN IS NOT CREATING GLOBAL WARMING THEN THERE IS NO REASON FOR THE IPCC TO EVEN EXIST. THESES 2500 POLITICIANS AND SCIENTISTS WOULD HAVE NO JOB. SO LET ME ASK YOU....IF YOUR EARNING YOUR INCOME FROM THE IPCC ARE YOU GOING TO FIND ANYTHING BUT THAT MAN IS TO BLAME?

THEY'VE GONE MAD.....COW

THE UN NOW CONSIDERS COW FARTS A BIGGER THREAT TO MAN THEN AUTOMOBILE CO2

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007190671,00.html

RECORD LOW TEMP'S HIT S.A.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES HIT SOUTH AFRICA.

http://www.capetimes.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=3844594

15 YEAR OLD MAKES GORE LOOK SILLY

15 YEAR OLD MAKES GORE LOOK SILLY OR SHOULD I SAY...A LIAR.


KRISTEN BYRNES A 15 YEAR OLD HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SPENDS SEVERAL MONTHS RESEARCHING GLOBAL WARMING AND DOES THE JOB THE NATIONAL MEDIA SHOULD BE DOING. DOING A GOOGLE NEWS SEARCH THIS MORNING, NOT ONE NATIONAL NEWS ORGANIZATION HAS PICKED THE STORY UP ALTHOUGH IT'S ONE OF THE HOTTEST TOPICS ON THE INTERNET......GUESS THEY JUST HOPE SHE WILL GO AWAY. THEIR PROBLEM IS THAT THEY CAN'T BAD MOUTH HER BY SAYING SHE'S ON THE PAYROLL OF THE OIL INDUSTRY.
http://home.earthlink.net/~ponderthemaunder/