Sunday, June 3, 2007

THERE IS NO CONSENSUS

You'll see this word in almost every newspaper article on global warming..."consensus". But is there really one in the scientific community? In 2003 Professor Dennis Bray of the GKSS Institute of Coastal Research in Geesthacht, Germany did a poll of the some of the worlds leading climatologists. And published the results to his poll in this paper.... http://www.sepp.org/Archive/NewSEPP/Bray.htm

In summary almost as many climatologists disagree at some level that our current global warming cycle is caused by man as agree with it.

50/50 is not a consensus.

4 comments:

John said...

Regarding scientific consensus, science could not possibly function if it were dependent upon "consensus." A scientist - regardless of the "team" talk we hear so much of - operates on the assumption that her or his ability to understand a phenomenon is better than the next guy's. If we didn't think that way, we would be flipping burgers instead. Consensus would stifle creative thought and imaginative approaches.

pmk said...

I don't like the term "scientific consensus" either, but I thought a scientist was a slave to the experimental method, irrespective of his personal abilities. Those that aren't so bound SHOULD BE "flipping burgers" instead (no elitism there, eh John?)

Buananoche said...

It is inevitable that any given poll can find a group of people to agree with their viewpoint, be it anthropogenic global warming or scientists named Steve that believe in evolution. The fact is a survey of 3146 earth scientists asked the question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" The results of this survey? Overall, 82% of the scientists answered yes. Beyond the general answer, if you look at the research conducted (via seeing who published work in the climate change subject) you find that 97.5% of climatologists who actively published research on climate change responded yes. This data comes from a 2008 Gallup poll (which can be found here: http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf ) Also, beyond individual scientists the large groups around the world all endorse anthropogenic climate change, these include NASA's Goddard institute, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Institution and the Academies of sciences from 19 different countries. That seems to me to be quite a consensus.

Doug Henderson said...

I have outlined at http://climate-change-theory.com a cogent argument debunking greenhouse warming theory and the reasons why NASA data support my theory by providing proof that there has been no build up of accumulated heat at sea surface between January 2003 and July 2011, despite increasing carbon dioxide levels. Doug Cotton